Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.